Gates, Flaps, Stop Logs, Screens,
Trash Rack Cleaning Systems
Kuenz America Inc.
9321 Focal Point #8
Raleigh, NC 27617
Visit us at booth #734
June 27 - 30, Denver, CO
http://hydroreview.hotims.com RS #68 http://hydroreview.hotims.com RS #69
Visit us at HydroVision International 2017 Booth #500
66 HYDRO REVIEW / June 2017 www.hydroworld.com
and the actual outcome may difer because
of the inherent uncertainty in the prediction
of climate change.
Tis downscaling process from the GCM
to the project watershed requires more efort
than a conventional analysis. Prediction of
realistic future scenarios for energy yield will
require careful assessment of the ranges of
potential hydrological responses to the changes
in precipitation, evaporation and other meteorological inputs.
Te outcome of the hydro-meteorological
analysis will be a time varying series that may
be non-homogeneous due to the efects of
changes in such elements as snow pack and
evaporation. Use of this product for assessment
of a project must then consider the hydrological variability. Consideration should be given
to simulation of a family of future hydrologic
scenarios that can be analyzed for energy yield
in the same manner as would be applied for
stochastic hydrological methods.
Several scenarios for input meteorological
parameters can be devised with a trend component. Tese can then be simulated to provide
a family of output scenarios that combine
inter-annual variability with the longer-term
climate change trend.
Analysis of this trended family of scenarios
will then provide a variety of inputs to the simulation of reservoir and power station operation.
Q: How can the uncertainty surrounding
climate change afect potential investors
in hydro project development?
Rae: Te investor wants to ensure the hydro
project can yield a rate of return that confrms
the investment is superior to alternatives. Te
rate of return will depend on the capital cost
of the project, fnancing terms, tax conditions
and future revenue.
With climate change and an associated
increase in runof with time, the investor can
see an increase in the rate of return. However,
whether this increase can be monetized
depends on whether the power market will
climate change in ... the amount of
water available for generation and ...
the seasonal distribution of runof.